基于地理加权回归模型评估土地利用对地表水质的影响

针对传统线性回归模型大多忽视空间数据局部变化特征这一缺陷,引入地理加权回归模型(GWR)用于评估土地利用对地表水质的影响,分析了不同子流域内两者关系出现空间变化的规律并阐释了原因.同时,对比了GWR模型与普通最小二乘模型(OLS)的校正R2、Akaike信息准则(AICc)及残差的空间自相关指数(Moran's I),验证了GWR模型在预测精度和处理空间自相关过程中是否优于OLS模型.结果表明,同一土地利用类型对水质的影响随空间位置的改变而发生方向或大小的变化.以温瑞塘河流域总氮(TN)与农用地的关系为例,从GWR模型局部回归系数的方向分析,两者关系表现为农村正、城区负的现象,从大小分析,旧城区TN与农用地回归系数的绝对值高于其它区域;在溶解氧(DO)与人口密度所构建的GWR模型中,两者关系在整个研究区域内均表现为负值,与OLS结果吻合,从回归系数的大小分析,人口密度对DO的作用在郊区及农村更为显著.针对此类关系出现空间变化的原因分析表明,相邻子流域土地利用百分比的改变及水体主要污染源的不同,是导致土地利用对水质作用发生变化的根本因素.最后,对比所构建的80个GWR与OLS模型校正R2、AICc指标,验证了GWR作为一种局部统计模型,其预测精度优于OLS等传统全局模型且更能反映实际空间特征.     

近10年流域江湖关系变化作用下鄱阳湖水动力及水质特征模拟

鄱阳湖水文情势受流域来水及长江共同影响,近10年流域、长江和鄱阳湖间关系发生了较大变化,导致了新的水文节律调整,进一步使得湖区水质环境发生变化.对近10年序列(2003—2012年)和1956—2002年序列的多年平均的日水文过程进行对比,分析了鄱阳湖的流域入流、湖口出流及湖区水位的年内变化过程;近10年鄱阳湖最高水位降低,湖相时间变短,河相时间增长;通过构建鄱阳湖的二维水动力水质模型,并采用实测2010年湖区水动力及水质数据对模型进行率定验证,在此基础上着重研究流域、江湖水文情势变化条件下,湖区的水动力和水质发生的变化.模拟结果显示,由于4—6月间湖区丰水期滞后13 d,8—10月间枯水期提前21 d,导致TN浓度在两个时间段内分别上升10.6%和12.4%,TP浓度在两期间内分别升高11.7%和13.6%.在8—10月期间,湖区水位下降速率增加,南部与西部的碟型湖提前与主湖区分离,形成相对静水的水塘,加剧了碟型湖的富营养化风险.     

附着硅藻指数在河流水质监测中的适用性技术研究

对广西龙江和柳江中段共18个样点进行了附着硅藻的采样调查,并采用相关分析法、主成分分析法、最优分割分类法、箱须图法、逐步判别分析法和双向指示种分类法等数学方法研究分析了16个硅藻指数在龙江与柳江中段水质监测中的适用性.结果表明,3次4组不同水质类别中,IPS(Specific Pollution Sensitivity Index)和TDI(Trophic Diatom Index)指数与样点的箱须图都表现出合理的趋势,而且IPS和TDI间、及与环境因子及其他硅藻指数间的相关性显著.表明IPS和TDI适合进行龙江与柳江中段的水质生物监测评价,而本文提出的硅藻指数适用性技术也具有一定的推广价值.     

2014年春节期间北京市空气质量分析

对2014年1月30日(除夕)13时到1月31日(初一)12时期间北京市官园、怀柔和良乡监测站的CO、SO2、NOx、PM10、PM2.5浓度及PM2.5化学组分和能见度等监测数据进行分析,探讨了污染源减排和烟花爆竹燃放对北京市空气质量的叠加影响.研究发现,烟花爆竹的集中燃放会在短时间内造成严重的大气污染,其中,对PM10、PM2.5和SO2的影响最为显著.官园、怀柔和良乡监测站在1月31日凌晨1时的PM10浓度值分别为377.8、253.2和627.0μg·m-3,分别为1、2月份平均值的2.4、2.0和3.6倍;PM2.5浓度值分别为292.0、184.7和522.4μg·m-3,分别为1、2月份平均值的2.1、1.5和3.2倍.烟花爆竹的燃放对PM2.5化学组分中的K+、SO2-4、Cl-、Mg2+和Na+等影响最大,1月31日凌晨1时这5种离子在PM2.5浓度中占的比例高达92.1%.烟花爆竹的燃放造成1月31日凌晨1时监测中心和良乡的能见度分别降至2422 m和3591 m,是1、2月份能见度均值的22.9%和32.8%.2010—2014年"春节半月"期间官园、怀柔和良乡PM10平均浓度大多低于冬季均值和年均值,2014年"春节半月"这3个监测站的PM2.5浓度相比于冬季均值分别下降了33.3%、20.6%和39.2%,表明污染源减排对空气质量的正影响非常明显.     

Pollution levels and characteristics of phthalate esters in indoor air of offices

The pollution status and characteristics of PAEs (phthalate esters) were investigated in indoor air of offices, and PAEs of both gas-phase and particulate-phase were detected in all the samples. The concentration (sum of the gas phase and the particulate phase) was 4748.24 ng/m³, ranging between 3070.09 and 6700.14 ng/m³. Diethyl phthalate, dibutyl phthalate, and di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate were the most abundant compounds, together accounting for 70% of the Σ6PAEs. Dividing the particulate-phase PAEs into four size ranges (<2.5, 2.5-5, 5-10, >10 μm), the result indicated that PAEs in PM_2.5 were the most abundant, with the proportion of 72.64%. In addition, the PAE concentration in PM_2.5 correlated significantly with the total particulate-phase PAEs (R² = 0.85). Thus, the amount of PAEs in PM_2.5 can be estimated from the total amount of particulate-phase PAEs using this proportion. In a comparison between the offices and a newly decorated study room, it was found that pollution characteristics were similar between these two places. Thus, it is implied that the PAE concentration decreased by 50% 2 yr after decorating.     

Kinetics characteristics of coal low-temperature oxidation in oxygen-depleted air

The longwall gob (mined-out) area is one of the main places that are prone to coal spontaneous combustion and most of the residual coal in it is in oxygen-depleted air as it is a semi-enclosed space. A DSC (Differential scanning calorimetry) test system was designed to accurately test the heat generation of coal oxidation in different oxygen concentration atmosphere, based on which the kinetics parameters (activation energy and pre-exponential factor) of coal low-temperature oxidation in oxygen-depleted air were solved out. The results show that the kinetics parameters present obvious stage features and the lower the oxygen concentration is, the smaller is the difference of the kinetics parameters that in different oxidation stages. When the oxygen concentration is lower than 5% and 3% for jet coal and meagre coal respectively, the kinetics parameters of slow oxidation start to be greater than that of rapid oxidation. Both in the slow oxidation and rapid oxidation stage, with the decrease of oxygen concentration, kinetics parameters present significant decline on the whole while in different oxygen concentration range, the decline rate is different. It's concluded that when assessing the residual coal's self-heating risk, we need to use the corresponding kinetics parameters of coal oxidation in the oxygen concentration of the location where the residual coal is and the safety factor will be greater to only use the kinetics parameters of coal oxidation in slow oxidation stage. This study is of great significance for the assessment and control of the self-heating risk of coal that in different oxygen concentration atmospheres of the longwall gob areas.     

Influence of concentration distribution of hydrogen in air on measured flammability limits

There is a clear difference between exiting data on the measured flammability limits of hydrogen-air mixture. The non-uniformity of concentration distribution of hydrogen in air is a contributor to deviations of the upper flammability limit (UFL) and the lower flammability limit (LFL) measured in different experiments. This paper presents a numerical model to simulate the gas mixing process from start to stability, to predict the concentration distribution, and to research the influence of concentration distribution of hydrogen in air on measured UFLs and LFLs. The commercial software package Fluent was used to carry out the numerical simulation for the concentration distribution of hydrogen in air in the vessels with length-to-diameter ratios (L: D) of 1:1, 3:1, 5:1 and 7:1 respectively. Based on the numerical simulation and analysis, the influence of concentration distribution on measured flammability limits was demonstrated for hydrogen in air in the vessel. It is found that the deviations of measured flammability limits of hydrogen in air are the minimum in the vessel with length-to-diameter ratio of 1:1, and augment with the augmentation of vessel length-to-diameter ratio. Moreover, it is presented that the deviations of measured flammability limits of hydrogen in the center of the vessel are lower than that in the top and the bottom.     

Numerical simulation of premixed methane–air deflagration in a semi-confined obstructed chamber

In this paper, large eddy simulation coupled with a turbulent flame speed cloure (TFC) subgrid combustion model has been utilized to simulate premixed methane–air deflagration in a semi-confined chamber with three obstacles mounted inside.The computational results are in good agreement with published experimental data, including flame structures, pressure time history and flame speed. The attention is focused on the flame flow field interaction, pressure dynamics, as well as the mechanism of obstacle-induced deflagration. It is found that there is a positive feedback mechanism established between the flame propagation and the flow field. The pressure time history can be divided into four stages and the pseudo-combustion concept is proposed to explain the pressure oscillation phenomenon. The obstacle-induction mechanism includes direct effect and indirect effect, but do not always occur at the same time.     

长株潭城市环境空气中PM2.5和O3质量浓度的相关性研究

PM2.5与O3均为导致城市环境空气质量恶化的主要污染物,采用自动设备监测湖南省长沙、株洲、湘潭3市商业区和郊区空气中的PM2.5和O3质量浓度,并对数据进行相关性分析.结果表明:PM2.5和O3质量浓度的季节性变化大,其中O3质量浓度夏、秋2季高,春、冬2季低;PM2.5则秋、冬2季高,春、夏2季低;O3质量浓度峰值一般出现在当天午后,PM2.5质量浓度峰值一般出现在上午;空间分布上,O3质量浓度在郊区站点相对较高,而PM2.5质量浓度在商业区站点较高.PM2.5与O3质量浓度变化以负相关为主,即PM2.5质量浓度高时,O3质量浓度则低,反之亦然,二者一般不产生叠加污染.总体上,夏、秋季节应主要防O3污染,春、冬季节则主要防PM25污染.     

模糊综合评价法的改进及其在水库水质评价中的应用

为了克服传统模糊综合评价法中权重赋值的片面性及最大隶属度原则导致评价结果不合理的弊端,提出了基于层次分析法和熵权法的主客观组合权重,并结合相乘相加算子及加权平均原则,建立了改进的模糊综合评价法.选取TP、TN、DO、NH3-N、CODMn和BOD5为评价指标,用改进的模糊综合评价法对重庆某水库2012年7-12月的水质进行了综合评价.结果表明:TN为主要的污染物;水质最差时段为8月,评价结果为2.655,水质属于Ⅱ级,略偏于Ⅲ级.评价结果与人工神经网络模型所得结果基本一致.